Early-Year Milk Price and Child Stunting in Zambia, with K. Baylis
Zambia experienced a sharp rise in food prices in late 2015. In this study, we construct a novel dataset by integrating historical food price data with the most recent Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) from 2018. We examine the relationship between early-life food prices (e.g., fresh milk and mealie meal) and under-five child stunting in Zambia, while accounting for child-level characteristics and household fixed effects. Our findings suggest that elevated milk prices during the early years of life (12 to 24 months) are a significant risk factor for stunting among children aged 24 to 59 months, particularly those who completed their first two years of life. The effect is especially pronounced in urban areas, particularly among the poorest and middle-income groups, whose milk consumption rates are relatively high, excluding the wealthiest group. This study contributes to the literature by empirically identifying the critical timing at which price shocks in nutrient-dense foods contribute to stunting. It highlights both the most vulnerable groups during price shocks and the optimal timing for interventions to mitigate the risk of stunting.